10-20% increase likely without any major pest attacks or diseases.
MP crop is likely to be the same as last year.
Karnataka crop looks good in irrigated areas and rainfed traditional (KDL) areas.
Chili prices across markets have shown a weak tendency despite expected increase in acreage and water availability at major reservoirs.
Export demand has picked up from China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka & Indonesia. However, domestic demand remains sluggish.
Near Term View
Prices of Best grades are expected to be range-bound and Medium Best & Medium are expected to soften in the near term.
Tumeric
Crop & Market Scenario:
Sowing has been completed across major turmeric origins.
AP and Telangana sowing is marginally better compared to last year. TN and Maharashtra sowing and crop conditions signal a ~10-15% crop increase per initial estimates.
Almost all growing regions have good rainfall, which is likely to continue, giving better prospects to the standing crop.
Low quality inferior stock is being sold at discounted price levels. However, quality stock demand has improved this month as a result of renewed inquiries and festival demand.
Domestic and export demand remains sluggish, mainly on liquidity issues, which are slowly picking up.
Prices were corrected down from last month.
Near Term View
Prices are likely to be range-bound for the next 3 months on the basis of standing crop progress as well as C/F stock liquidation trend.
Cumin
Crop & Market Scenario:
Daily average arrivals for the month of Sept were 250 MT in Unjha. Prices were range bound during Sept.
Markets were mostly stable during the month due to lesser export demand and sufficient arrivals.
Factors to Watch:
Export demand during balance year and domestic festive demand in October
INR depreciation influencing export parity.
Sowing for next crop, weather conditions.
Coriander
Crop & Market Scenario:
Coriander prices softened in Sept on account of good arrivals and traders liquidating old crop and inferior quality stocks.
Decreased availability of imported coriander led to a demand switch to good quality domestic grades.
However, huge carry in stocks still has an impact on the broader market movement.
Near Term View
Prices are likely to remain stable to marginally bearish in the next 2 weeks on account of good arrivals.
Black Pepper
Crop & Market Scenario:
Indian black pepper is trading by its own domestic demand supply equation, setting aside the huge disparity with other origins like Vietnam, Brazil & Indonesian price parities.
Prices remain steady to better on crop damage reports from Kerala & South Karnataka as well as on renewed buying interest from stockists.
Incessant rains, strong winds and landslides in August have badly affected pepper vines.
The overall crop damage and yield loss is expected to be 20-25% higher compared to last year.
Near Term View
Prices are likely to trade steadily in the near term. Any further upward price trend from these levels will likely be capped by new selling interest.
